Vistra
Through the investors’ lenses
Each of these investors has said in public what they look at before buying. Click a name to see how this company measures up — a tick where it passes one of their tests, a cross where it does not.
Warren Buffett 2/4
| Measure | VST | Checked against | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owner earnings | $178.00m | positive | ✓ |
| Return on equity | 18.5% | median 11.7% | ✓ |
| Debt to equity | 3.34x | median 0.79x | ✗ |
| Operating margin | 10.8% | median 15.0% | ✗ |
Passes 2 of 4. To be clear: Warren Buffett has never said anything about Vistra. These are the company’s own figures put through the tests he described. What he looks at, and why →
Terry Smith 1/4
| Measure | VST | Checked against | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on capital employed | 8.6% | median 10.1% | ✗ |
| Cash conversion | 4.31x | median 1.78x | ✓ |
| Operating margin | 10.8% | median 15.0% | ✗ |
| Debt to equity | 3.34x | median 0.79x | ✗ |
Passes 1 of 4. To be clear: Terry Smith has never said anything about Vistra. These are the company’s own figures put through the tests he described. What he looks at, and why →
Charlie Munger 1/3
| Measure | VST | Checked against | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on capital employed | 8.6% | median 10.1% | ✗ |
| Return on equity | 18.5% | median 11.7% | ✓ |
| Operating margin | 10.8% | median 15.0% | ✗ |
Passes 1 of 3. To be clear: Charlie Munger has never said anything about Vistra. These are the company’s own figures put through the tests he described. What he looks at, and why →
Chuck Akre 2/4
| Measure | VST | Checked against | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 18.5% | median 11.7% | ✓ |
| Debt to equity | 3.34x | median 0.79x | ✗ |
| Cash conversion | 4.31x | median 1.78x | ✓ |
| Return on equity, sustained | 3 of 9 | 8 of 10 above median | ✗ |
Passes 2 of 4. To be clear: Chuck Akre has never said anything about Vistra. These are the company’s own figures put through the tests he described. What he looks at, and why →
Philip Fisher 1/4
| Measure | VST | Checked against | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | 10.8% | median 15.0% | ✗ |
| Net margin | 5.4% | median 10.2% | ✗ |
| Return on capital employed | 8.6% | median 10.1% | ✗ |
| Operating margin, held or improving | 10.8% | 10-yr median 10.8% | ✓ |
Passes 1 of 4. To be clear: Philip Fisher has never said anything about Vistra. These are the company’s own figures put through the tests he described. What he looks at, and why →
Walter Schloss 0/2
| Measure | VST | Checked against | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 0.78x | median 1.25x | ✗ |
| Debt to equity | 3.34x | median 0.79x | ✗ |
Passes 0 of 2. To be clear: Walter Schloss has never said anything about Vistra. These are the company’s own figures put through the tests he described. What he looks at, and why →
Benjamin Graham 0/1
| Measure | VST | Checked against | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | 0.78x | 2.00x published | ✗ |
| Long-term debt to working capital | — | 1.00x published | — |
Passes 0 of 1. To be clear: Benjamin Graham has never said anything about Vistra. These are the company’s own figures put through the tests he described. What he looks at, and why →
Joel Greenblatt 0/1
| Measure | VST | Checked against | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on capital employed | 8.6% | median 10.1% | ✗ |
Passes 0 of 1. To be clear: Joel Greenblatt has never said anything about Vistra. These are the company’s own figures put through the tests he described. What he looks at, and why →
Peter Lynch 0/2
| Measure | VST | Checked against | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to equity | 3.34x | median 0.79x | ✗ |
| Net margin | 5.4% | median 10.2% | ✗ |
Passes 0 of 2. To be clear: Peter Lynch has never said anything about Vistra. These are the company’s own figures put through the tests he described. What he looks at, and why →
| Basis | Payout | Why |
|---|---|---|
| GAAP earnings | 41.4% | whyThe dividend is set against the allowed return on the rate base. |
| Operating cash flow | 7.5% | whyBefore the capital programme the regulator expects. |
| Free cash flow | 23.2% | whySwings with the capex cycle by design — growth into the rate base is recovered through rates. Says little about the dividend. |
Spread between highest and lowest: 33.8 percentage points. Same filings, different denominators.
Coverage rating 46 / 100 — Tight. ? Peer standing 42/50Direction 4/30Stability 0/20
Against its own history: 41.4% this year vs 17.7% median over the prior 4. A gap this size is usually a one-off — acquisition, settlement, cyclical trough — not a dividend that stopped being funded. The rating reads the latest year; the table shows the trend.
GAAP earnings payout, last 5 years
| Fiscal year | Payout |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 41.4% |
| 2024-12-31 | 12.5% |
| 2023-12-31 | 22.9% |
| 2020-12-31 | 41.7% |
| 2019-12-31 | 6.7% |
Coverage worsened sharply this year, 12.5% to 41.4%, after no clear trend before it. One year is not a trend, but it is worth knowing which direction the last one moved.
84% of the 57 utilities here pay out more — comfortable for the sector.
The arithmetic
- GAAP earnings — dividends declared per share $0.901 ÷ diluted EPS $2.18
- Operating cash flow — dividends paid $306m ÷ operating cash flow $4,070m
- Free cash flow — dividends paid $306m ÷ (operating cash flow $4,070m − capex $2,752m)
Where the figures came from
- 10-K filed 2026-02-27 · accession 0001692819-26-000006
All public at sec.gov — you should not have to take our word for it.
Computed straight from SEC XBRL. A number that looks wrong to you is more useful to us than agreement — tell us.
What the GAAP earnings payout ratio measures, and where every company here sits on it.
Also on: rated tight · when it files.
When this changes
Every figure above is recomputed whenever Vistra files. The monthly letter carries what filed, what moved, and one finding computed across every company here.